The State of the Science of Natural Family Planning Fifty Years after Humane Vitae: A Report from NFP Scientists’ Meeting Held at the US Conference of Catholic Bishops, April 4, 2018

A one-day meeting of physicians, professional nurses, and scientists actively involved in Natural Family Planning (NFP) research was held to review the state of the science of NFP and consider future priorities. The meeting had four objectives: (i) determine the gaps in research evidence for secure methods of NFP among women of all reproductive categories, (ii) determine the gaps in the research and development of new technology for providing NFP services, (iii) determine the gaps in the research that determine the benefits and challenges with use of NFP among married couples, and (iv) provide prioritized ideas for future research needs from the analysis of evidence gaps from objectives above. This article summarizes the discussion and conclusions drawn from topics reviewed. While much has been accomplished in the fifty years since Humane vitae, there are still many gaps to address. Five areas for future research in NFP were identified as high priority: (1) well-designed method effectiveness studies among various reproductive categories including important subpopulations (postpartum, perimenopause, posthormonal contraceptive), normally cycling women (especially US women), and comparative studies between NFP methods; (2) validation studies to establish the benefit of charting fertility signs (both currently known and potential new indicators) as a screening tool for women’s health issues; (3) ongoing independent evaluation of fertility monitoring apps to provide users perspective on the relative merits of each and to identify those most worthy of further effectiveness testing; (4) studies evaluating the impact of new technologies on NFP adoption, use, and persistence; and (5) creation of a shared database across various NFP methods to collaborate on shared research interests, longitudinal studies, and so on. This summarizes a meeting to review the scientific and medical progress related to natural family planning made in the 50 years since Humane Vitae and to define priorities for future work. Areas reviewed included the evidence for avoiding pregnancy in normally cycling, postpartum, and perimenopausal women, the impact of new technology, including fertility charting apps, on NFP, and the impact on relationships and personal well-being from use of NFP. Five priority focus areas for future research were also identified

Spatial cross-correlation of Antarctic Sea ice and seabed topography

A time series of derived sea ice concentrations as observed about Antarctica by the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) satellite in 1983 is considered. The degree of spatial cross correlation between these data and seabed topography is quantified. The approach is to implement a statistical image processing filter designed to extract local patterns of spatial cross correlation over the entire sea ice field as it undergoes daily changes. Throughout the sea ice, it was found that large scale variations in sea ice concentration correlate systematically with variations in the topography of the seabed. Generally speaking, high concentrations of sea ice occur over deep ocean, whereas areas of encavement, early dissipation and polynya formation develop over topographic features of high elevation. The latter was studied in detail with respect to the features Maud Rise, Astrid Ridge and the continental shelf in the Cosmonaut and Ross Seas. In each case, it is shown that an encavement in sea ice, a polynya, or both develops in the vicinity of the feature in question. As these results are quantified in terms of spatial cross correlation, a potential role is inferred for seabed topography in such fluctuations in the sea ice about Antarctica

Suppression of displacement in severely slowed saccades

Severely slowed saccades in <I>spinocerebellar ataxia</I> have previously been shown to be at least partially closed-loop in nature: their long duration means that they can be modified in-flight in response to intrasaccadic target movements. In this study, a woman with these pathologically slowed saccades could modify them in-flight in response to target movements, even when saccadic suppression of displacement prevented conscious awareness of those movements. Thus saccadic suppression of displacement is not complete, in that it provides perceptual information that is sub-threshold to consciousness but which can still be effectively utilised by the oculomotor system

Combining MODIS LAI with ICESat-Based Canopy Heights Improves Spaceborne Estimates of Vegetation Roughness Length for Momentum

Most land-surface models require parameterization of vertical wind profiles within the atmospheric boundary layer. For vegetated surfaces, it is common to assume a logarithmic profile in the surface layer, which includes estimates of vegetation roughness length for momentum (z0) and zero-plane displacement height (d0). This study finds that remotely-sensed forest canopy heights improve estimates of aerodynamic roughness length for momentum using a previously-developed representation of the roughness sublayer (Raupach 1992; Jasinski et al. 2005). Resulting roughness products consist of two datasets: 1) 14 years of 8-day snapshots of the global land surface at a nominal spatial resolution of 500-meters for users who wish to retain full temporal resolution and interannual variability; and 2) multiyear averages of the 8-day snapshots, here referred to as "climatologies" of roughness, which retain underlying seasonality. Both products are suitable for use in data assimilation and reanalyses such as the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS), for which these products were initially developed

ASCA Observations of OAO 1657-415 and its Dust-Scattered X-Ray Halo

We report on two ASCA observations of the high-mass X-ray binary pulsar OAO 1657-415. A short observation near mid-eclipse caught the source in a low-intensity state, with a weak continuum and iron emission dominated by the 6.4-keV fluorescent line. A later, longer observation found the source in a high-intensity state and covered the uneclipsed through mid-eclipse phases. In the high-intensity state, the non-eclipse spectrum has an absorbed continuum component due to scattering by material near the pulsar and 80 per cent of the fluorescent iron emission comes from less than 19 lt-sec away from the pulsar. We find a dust-scattered X-ray halo whose intensity decays through the eclipse. We use this halo to estimate the distance to the source as 7.1 +/- 1.3 kpc.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Searching for Cooling Signatures in Strong Lensing Galaxy Clusters: Evidence Against Baryons Shaping the Matter Distribution in Cluster Cores

The process by which the mass density profile of certain galaxy clusters becomes centrally concentrated enough to produce high strong lensing (SL) cross-sections is not well understood. It has been suggested that the baryonic condensation of the intra-cluster medium (ICM) due to cooling may drag dark matter to the cores and thus steepen the profile. In this work, we search for evidence of ongoing ICM cooling in the first large, well-defined sample of strong lensing selected galaxy clusters in the range 0.1 < z < 0.6. Based on known correlations between the ICM cooling rate and both optical emission line luminosity and star formation, we measure, for a sample of 89 strong lensing clusters, the fraction of clusters that have [OII]3727 emission in their brightest cluster galaxy (BCG). We find that the fraction of line-emitting BCGs is constant as a function of redshift for z > 0.2 and shows no statistically significant deviation from the total cluster population. Specific star formation rates, as traced by the strength of the 4000 angstrom break, D_4000, are also consistent with the general cluster population. Finally, we use optical imaging of the SL clusters to measure the angular separation, R_arc, between the arc and the center of mass of each lensing cluster in our sample and test for evidence of changing [OII] emission and D_4000 as a function of R_arc, a proxy observable for SL cross-sections. D_4000 is constant with all values of R_arc, and the [OII] emission fractions show no dependence on R_arc for R_arc > 10" and only very marginal evidence of increased weak [OII] emission for systems with R_arc < 10". These results argue against the ability of baryonic cooling associated with cool core activity in the cores of galaxy clusters to strongly modify the underlying dark matter potential, leading to an increase in strong lensing cross-sections.Comment: 9 Pages, 5 Figures, 1 Tabl

Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules